By Tyler Durden
Having tagged last Thursday’s intraday highs, S&P futures are fading this morning (for now)…
but, as Bloomberg notes, U.S. stock-market internals are exhibiting conflicting signs as the rally in the S&P 500 Index approaches 10% from the low reached after Brexit.
Just 5 percent of companies in the benchmark have rallied far and fast enough to breach a level analysts deem “overbought,” versus the average 15 percent in comparable rallies, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
At the same time, the gauge’s 10-day moving average is 5 percent higher than its 200-day mean, the widest gap in more than a year.
And as Seabreeze Partners’ Doug Kass notes, the market is like the Energizer Bunny these days – it seems to keep going and going and going, but some concerning signposts are emerging in between the market’s breadth thrusts and new all-time highs. Consider these data points…
The McClellan Summation Index
This important intermediate-term momentum indicator has reached its second-highest reading in a decade.
While high readings of this index can represent strength, the decade’s highest reading came during the week of May 21, 2013 — and preceded a 6% S&P 500 correction.
The 10-day CBOE put/call ratio hit 0.84 yesterday, matching a two-year low at 0.84.
The 200-Day Moving Averages
The S&P 500 has yet to show more stocks over their 200-day moving averages than it did in April and June.
A Less-Than-Triumphant Tuesday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to close with a gain yesterday.
The Strong Dollar
The U.S. dollar index rose to a four-month recovery high of 97.1 yesterday, which will pressure multinationals:
Not-So-Slick Oil Prices
Crude oil is now at about $44 a barrel, $6 to $7 off of its recent highs.
Financial-blogger sentiment is the most bullish since 2012:
Source: Helene Meisler
The CNNMoney Fear & Greed Index is flashing “froth”:
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And finally, rate-hikes are back on the table…
But apart from that, everything is awesome.