Why The Odds Of A Recession In The Next Year Are Far Higher Than You Think

The reason why I am worried about a much more powerful than usual recession is because of the tremendous risks – namely bubbles and debt – that have built up globally in the past decade due to ultra-stimulative central bank policies. In the current piece, I will argue that the probability of a recession in the next year is likely even higher than indicated by the popular New York Fed recession probability model that many economists follow.