Beneath The IP Topline: Booming Shale, Slumping Autos, Tepid “Recovery”

Despite the gaudy headline rate, these are not the attributes of healthy economy. They are instead the signs of an artificial boom, at best. The trick isn’t getting to reflation, it is getting past reflation into true recovery. That could still happen, but already two-thirds of 2018 have been booked and the downside risks remain far more substantial than upside potential. And that’s before we get to the possible next downturn.