Breakout At 3,000? Why It’s Not Gonna Happen

History is clear on this one. If this is the beginning of a full-blown rate-cutting cycle by the Fed in an attempt to ward off a recession à la 1990, 2001 or 2008, stocks typically don’t do well after the first cut. On the other hand, if the cut is not associated with a further slowdown, but a reacceleration or stabilization in growth, then equity markets have a chance to move higher and finally break above 3000 on a sustained basis.