December 2014 Redux—-Collapsing Oil, Accelerating Economic Weakness

This isn’t a normal selloff, the usual back and forth that happens in every market. No typical “volatility”, this is another paradigm shift of the same variety back toward global downturn. The 3-month calendar spread for WTI, as it happens, settles just shy of $1 contango today. The ghosts of late 2014 are being set upon Jay Powell as he attempts to make the same ultimately wrong prediction as his predecessor.