For economic growth (real GDP), the numbers are already starting to come down. For the second time in a row, the macro figures for 2018 have been reduced. Back in March, the ECB staff were seeing 2.4% in growth for this year, picking up on last year’s supposedly strong finish. They always extrapolate in straight lines, clearly unable to determine what it is that moves the global economy one way or another.
The September estimates have been pared back to 2.0%, and for the first time the 2019 estimates were lowered a touch. What happened in between March and September? Nothing much, at least according to Mario Draghi. He’s clinging steadfast to the idea 2017 reflation somehow lives on. He didn’t say “transitory” but that’s just what he meant.