he IHME model, as well as Dr. Fauci have recently decreased the likely deaths from this pandemic to around 60,000 from earlier estimates of 1–2 million.The early reports of 3–4% case fatality rate (CFR) are likely misleading. The numbers miss those who are asymptomatic or recovered at home without seeking testing. What we really need to know is the infection mortality rate (IFR). Fortunately we have some good clues. Looking at the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the infection fatality rate on the cruise ship was 1%. However, the average age of people on the cruise ship was much higher than the age of the average American. When you adjust for the differences in age between the cruise ship and America, you see that the IFR should be about 0.1%.