Gavekal Reveals A New, “Flashing Red” Warning

According to Gave, recession timers should ignore government debt and focus instead on the corporate credit market. Here, the U.S. natural rate of interest can be represented by yields on longer-dated industrial bond rated Baa by Moody’s, while the market rate is captured by the prime lending rate charged by U.S. banks.

The problem is that if Gave’s interpretation is right, the US economy is about to fall off a cliff