Goldman: If Trump Wants To Win A Trade War, The Market Has To Crash

And while the three considerations above are useful in framing the Trump admin’s thought process in how it  go in and out of negotiations, Goldman makes another far more relevant point, at least as far as traders are concerned, namely that to maintain leverage in negotiations, the Administration must convince trading partners that the US intends to impose trade restrictions. However, and this is the key part, “it is unlikely that the White House can convince trading partners that tariff threats are credible without also convincing financial markets.