How The Fed Is Draining The Punch Bowl—-Some Sneaky Mechanics Are Reversing

Developments in outstanding net Fed credit (as of 01 November). A year ago Fed credit was still growing at 8.9% q/q and 4.6% y/y, despite QT already being underway. The decline in securities held outright was primarily offset by the rundown of reverse repos with domestic banks. These are now completely unwound – what remains are reverse repos with foreign institutions, which usually do not change much over time. As a result changes in outstanding Fed credit are now almost exclusively driven by the rundown of the QE portfolio.