Last Two Times The US Economy Reached Current Cyclical Peak, Recession Was Less Than A Year Away

There’s been an air of euphoria about the economy – a sense that the boom times will keep going – with GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4%. Yet, the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. 

We don’t believe in forecasting by analogy, because much is different today. But while we aren’t predicting an imminent recession, for months ECRI has been making the case that the economy isn’t as strong as everyone believes.