Mind The Duncan Indicator—GDP Tops In

With the latest GDP estimates in hand for Q4, the Duncan Leading Indicator suggests to us the economy just might be heading for its peak. The year-over-year change in it has now been negative for all of 2019 (which, not coincidentally, matches the behavior of the yield curve dating back to around November 2018), with that comparison accelerating on the downside particularly over the last three months of last year.