Mind The Pension Ponzi—8% Returns Ain’t In The Cards, Never Were

As of June 2017, the 10-year annualized median return for all public pensions tracked by the Wilshire Trust Universal Comparison Service was 5.57%.

That’s nearly 250 basis points below the 8% target. But there’s another way pensions make money… they collect funds from active workers and taxpayers. When these funds drop their return expectations, it has real life implications. With a lower, projected return, a pension fund needs more cash to pay out its future liabilities.

For example, CalPERS, which is dropping its expected return to 7% by 2021, said the state and school districts paying into the pension will have to pay at least $15 billion more over the next 20 years once the 7% target kicks in. So, people depending on a pension not only likely won’t get the money owed to them in the future… but they’ll also get stuck paying more into the system today. It’s a true lose/lose.