Payroll Friday: This Is Bad, Folks

The Federal Reserve is trying to thread a very fine needle; on the one hand, the rate cuts. On the other, he doesn’t want them to become a catalyst for people to say, see the economy really is weak!

That means he has to claim the rate cut is a big deal but not that big of a deal because the economy is otherwise strong. Even the FOMC recognizes how business investment and trade are definitely a problem. Consumers, though, they are what will get the economy through these minor cross currents. And that begins in the labor market.