Peak September—Why The Calendar Has Run Out Of IP Boom

Over the last five months, however, IP has slowed considerably, rising by about three-quarters of a percent. That’s just 1.8% annualized, meaning growth more like the 2012 slowdown than the 2010 recovery(ish) trend.

If this slowing continues throughout October, IP will have gained only 3.7% next month (down sharply from this month on base effects) since it will be compared to October 2017 and that month’s big jump kickstarting the storm cleanup effort.