Recession Comes Knocking Next Door

Turn on the TV or spend any time on Twitter and you will be comfortably, numbly, reassured that everything is awesome – stocks are up (well FANGs are up), confidence is up (as is credit card debt), and the economy is “SOARING” (as long as you don’t pay attention to the weakness in income growth). However, reality is that the so-called economic data that the mainstream relies upon is ‘soft’ survey-based perceptions skewed by ‘hope’ and ‘expectations’, and while that is rising once again, ‘hard’ real economic data continues to languish awkwardly unchanged from the start of President Trump’s reign……Bloomberg’s markets recession model, which translates how various asset classes are trading into recession probabilities, now flags the next recession to take place in 12-24 months. More importantly, the start of the recession is more likely to be in the next 12 months rather than in two years.