I have been saying it for years and I will say it again here — stocks are the worst possible “predictive” signal for the health of the general economy because they are an extreme trailing indicator. That is to say, when stock markets do finally crash, it is usually after years of negative signs in other more important fundamentals.
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3369-is-a-massive-stock-market-reversal-upon-us