Oil prices peaked on October 3 and by the end of that month the curve was already weeks in contango. You could argue that global oil traders were counting on waivers and already factoring Iran into the equation, but again they were a “surprise decision.”
The drop in WTI and the chaos in oil markets (benchmark spreads) was more than a month old by then, and it’s been a straight line (almost) from the start of the crash.In other words, Iran came along long after the market had viciously turned. Why is it so hard for people to accept that the problem could be rethinking demand worldwide?
It is, for many, impossible to believe that central bankers have it all wrong therefore the constant appeal of these sorts of ridiculous excuses. Mario Draghi says Europe is booming, or was, and if it isn’t now it’s only because of “transitory” factors to be cleared up soon enough. Jerome Powell can’t use the word “strong” frequently and emphatically enough in his commentary.