Uncle Sam’s Sharp Elbows: Why “Crowding Out” Is Coming Back

Looking beyond 2019, net debt issuance over the next ten years is expected to
average $1.2 trillion per year, and that forecast by the CBO, OMB and primary
dealers does not include a recession which could easily double the annual
estimate for a few years. It is probable that, barring
deflation or a notable stock market decline, higher interest rates will be
required to attract marginal domestic investors to purchase U.S. Treasuries.