In addition to the material increase in US recession risk, one more thing has changed from last year that’s worth considering. The recent failure of We Company to go public is reminiscent of past corporate events marking important tops in powerful secular trends:
- United Airlines’ failed LBO in October 1989, which effectively ended the high yield/LBO craze of the 1980s.
- The AOL/TWX merger in January 2000, bringing the Dotcom bubble to a close.
- JPM’s take-under of Bear Stearns in March 2008, which signaled the end of the financial excesses of the 2000s.