The issue with a statement of “there is no recession in sight,” is that it is based on the “best guesses” about the economy currently. However, economic data is subject to substantive negative revisions in the future as actual data is collected and adjusted over the next 12-months and 3-years. Consider for a minute that in January 2008 Chairman Bernanke stated:
“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
In hindsight, the NBER called an official recession that began in December of 2007.