Why The US Job Market Is About To Crack In 8 Charts

So as we await this Friday’s jobs report where consensus expects another solid 188K job gains for the month of November, it appears that the US labor market is finally starting to crack. Below we present some recent empirical evidence that confirms the growing downside risks to US employment, starting with the recent plunge in percentage of firms who are planning to increase their employment according to NFIB. As this is a leading indicator to nonfarm payrolls, it suggests that the US may be facing a -100K print in the near future – if confirmed, it would be the worst number since the financial crisis.